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Franzi | Games
Franzi | Games 
3 Apr 2026 | Sportsbetting
Champions League matchday prediction 2025/26: semi-final first legs
All predictions for the first legs of the 2026 Champions League semi-finals. Current form, background insights and exciting match-ups. Information on Europe’s premier competition.
approx. 3 min.
Champions League matchday prediction 2025/26: semi-final first legs
Exciting top match-ups await in our Champions League matchday prediction for the semi-final first legs. Arsenal reached the semi-finals with great difficulty and recently looked vulnerable both in the league and in the Champions League. With Atlético Madrid, the Gunners face a team that narrowly edged past FC Barcelona in the quarter-finals in typical Simeone fashion and is fully focused on Europe’s premier competition.
The clash between FC Bayern Munich and defending champions Paris Saint-Germain promises to be a real blockbuster. At the Parc des Princes, domestic dominance meets international ambition: while Bayern have secured their 35th Bundesliga title, PSG arrive as the reigning Champions League winners determined to defend their crown. Accordingly, expectations surrounding the matchday prediction are evenly balanced.
MERKUR Quick Tips for the Champions League semi-final First Legs
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC
PSG comfortably dispatched Liverpool in the quarter-finals. The Parisians exuded confidence and know the path to the title well from last season. Bayern, on the other hand, arrive in Paris with the freshly won league trophy, explosive attacking football and an unrelenting ability to come back. Both attacking lines are among the best Europe currently has to offer, and neither team is known for playing defensively or passively. Accordingly, a high-scoring and open exchange can be expected. Small details on the pitch and the form on the day will therefore be decisive in key moments.
Tip: draw + over 3.5 goals
Atlético vs. Arsenal
Atlético were unable to defend their advantage from the first leg of the quarter-finals with their usual compactness in front of a home crowd and allowed significantly more chances than usual. As a result, they nervously edged their way into the semi-finals. Arsenal have shown immense quality over the course of the season, but have recently appeared somewhat uncertain. Simeone is made for exactly these kinds of encounters, and the home atmosphere could prove to be a decisive factor. Arsenal are not without a chance due to their high individual quality and overall strong season record, but Atlético are likely to perform more boldly and ruthlessly at home than they have recently.
Tip: 1
MERKUR Champions League matchday prediction: The highlights of the semi-final first legs
This encounter sees a clash at the highest European level, with two top teams showcasing their class. PSG play at home with plenty of possession, high pressing and an attacking wing duo that recently left Liverpool with no chance in either match. Bayern, on the other hand, rely on a variable, high-tempo attacking style and proved against Real Madrid that they do not give up even after conceding multiple goals. Munich’s defence has not always been flawless over the course of the season, and PSG, with their quick wide players, have exactly the tools to punish such lapses. At the same time, Bayern arrive in Paris as early champions, full of confidence and armed with strong individual quality. They have impressively demonstrated throughout this Champions League season that they are more than capable of competing at this level. PSG have also experienced minor setbacks in the league recently, but in Europe’s premier competition the Parisians have consistently looked composed and ready for the title. A decisive factor could therefore be efficiency in front of goal, as both teams are likely to create numerous chances due to their attacking approach.
Prediction: FC Bayern will do everything in their power to secure a good position in Paris and avoid defeat at all costs. Fine margins will make the difference, and only the second leg will ultimately decide who books their place in the final.
Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal placed greater focus on defensive stability and efficiency from set pieces before the season. For long stretches of the campaign, this made them one of the most consistent teams in Europe, also because they controlled matches and finished them efficiently. Atlético traditionally thrive on defensive compactness, passion and dangerous counter-attacks. In front of their home crowd at the Metropolitano, the Madrid side bring exactly these strengths onto the pitch. The Gunners have recently looked less composed. The narrow semi-final qualification against Sporting and the downward trend in the league show that Arsenal are currently vulnerable. They are under pressure in both the Premier League and Europe’s premier competition. However, they currently lack their usual efficiency and control of the game. Atlético, on the other hand, are fully focused on the Champions League and only need to defend their Champions League spot in the league. Mental strength and ruthlessness in decisive moments have been the hallmark of the Colchoneros this season.
Prediction: Much points to a tight and tactically shaped game in Madrid, in which Atlético will do everything at home to secure a win. This determination could pose major problems for an Arsenal side that has recently been struggling for form.
