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Franzi | Games
Franzi | Games 
3 Apr 2026 | Sportsbetting
Champions League Matchday Predictions 2025/26: Quarter-finals First Legs
All predictions for the first legs of the 2025/26 Champions League quarter-finals. Current form, background info, and exciting matchups. Info on the Champions League.
approx. 3 min.
Champions League Matchday Predictions 2025/26: Quarter-finals First Legs
Our Champions League matchday prediction promises top-class encounters and football of the highest European standard for the quarter-final first legs. While Arsenal will be looking to confirm their strong form across all competitions at Sporting Lisbon, FC Barcelona and Atlético Madrid will face off in an all-Spanish clash. In the match between FC Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, national dominance meets international class: while Bayern are comfortably leading the Bundesliga, the 15-time Champions League winners – arguably the most composed club in the history of Europe’s premier competition – are coming to town. Meanwhile, the clash between Paris Saint-Germain and FC Liverpool also promises a game of the highest quality.
MERKUR Quick Tips for the Champions League quarter-final First Legs
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC
Sporting Lisbon demonstrated impressive comeback qualities in the round of 16: after a heavy 0–3 defeat in the first leg against Bodø/Glimt, they turned the tie around with a furious 5–0 victory in the second leg. This momentum and the confidence gained could play into the hosts’ hands. The Gunners arrive in absolute top form over the course of the season, but recently suffered a bitter defeat in the cup final against ManCity. Sporting are likely to take a bold approach on home soil. Despite the minor slip-ups in the recent past, Arsenal remain slight favourites due to their superior individual quality.
Tip: 2
Real Madrid vs. FC Bayern
FC Bayern are dominating the Bundesliga and head into the clash with Real Madrid full of confidence. The Munich side impress with attacking power and great versatility, but will have to assert themselves against the immense international experience of Los Blancos. Real traditionally operate with remarkable efficiency in the Champions League and keep a cool head even in the most intense phases of a match. A closely balanced contest is expected, in which fine margins are likely to be decisive. The star-studded line-ups of both teams possess exceptional quality and can make the difference at any moment.
Tip: Draw
PSG vs. Liverpool FC
Paris Saint-Germain are likely to head into the quarter-finals full of confidence after clearly dominating their round of 16 matches against Chelsea. In attack, the Parisians rely in particular on the pace and technique of Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola. Liverpool, on the other hand, have shown inconsistent performances this season, but still possess plenty of quality in all positions. The combination of Hugo Ekitiké and Florian Wirtz in particular repeatedly creates dangerous situations in the final third. Despite the individual quality on both sides, PSG currently appear to be in slightly better form. Liverpool will need to rely on a strong performance on the day to secure a good first-leg result away from home.
Tip: 1 + both to score
FC Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid
Barcelona currently present themselves as one of the most consistent teams in Spain and are leading the Spanish league. With plenty of possession, technical dominance and highly talented young players such as Lamine Yamal, the Catalans create dangerous moments. Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, traditionally adopt a much more passive approach, stay compact defensively and look to finish mainly through transitions. Diego Simeone’s side bring plenty of discipline and experience, but have recently delivered less dominant performances on the international stage. Barcelona therefore go into this tactically shaped encounter as slight favourites.
Tip: 1
MERKUR Champions League matchday prediction: The highlights of the quarter-final first legs
A European heavyweight clash awaits, as two absolute top teams go head-to-head. Bayern are likely to stick to their usual approach of high possession and intense tempo, while Real Madrid will look to exploit their strengths in transition play and clinical finishing in front of goal.
However, the German record champions’ defence has shown vulnerability to minor errors throughout the Bundesliga season. Nevertheless, their lead over closest challengers Borussia Dortmund is too large, making the title seem all but certain. In the current Champions League campaign, Bayern have only suffered a 3–1 slip-up against Arsenal, underlining their quality once again.
With their pacey attacking players such as Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé, Los Blancos are predestined to exploit spaces ruthlessly and punish defensive lapses with clinical precision. This is likely to be their tried-and-tested approach against Bayern. However, Real Madrid have also gone through more turbulent phases recently, facing significant setbacks. Although they sit second in La Liga, they suffered a heavy upset earlier in the year in the domestic cup against second-division side Albacete.
Prediction: There is much to suggest an emotionally charged encounter at the Santiago Bernabéu. Efficiency in front of goal and tactical discipline will be decisive.
This encounter represents two pretty different playing philosophies: on the one hand, a young, attack-minded Barcelona side full of pace and creativity; on the other, an experienced Atlético Madrid team that relies on defensive stability and tactical discipline.
The two teams know each other extremely well from domestic competitions. The Copa del Rey semi-final matches in February and March were clearly dominated by one side each: Atlético won the first leg convincingly 4–0, while Barcelona responded with a 3–0 victory in the return leg, but were still eliminated in the end.
The Catalans are known for their possession-based football and repeatedly look to create openings through their technically gifted attacking players. They demonstrated this impressively in the Champions League round of 16 with a commanding 7–2 win over Newcastle. Barcelona are also currently in strong form in La Liga, underlining their title ambitions by sitting in first place.
Atlético, meanwhile, will aim to stay compact and rely on winning possession and launching quick counter-attacks. However, they did not show their usual stability in the second leg of the round of 16 against Spurs. In the Spanish league, though, “Los Colchoneros” have looked more solid again after initial difficulties. It will therefore be interesting to see how focused they are in this clash with Barcelona.
Prediction: A tactically shaped contest in which Barcelona’s attacking fluidity meets Atlético’s defensive experience. Camp Nou and its unique atmosphere could once again prove to be the decisive factor.
