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Franzi | Games 
16 Jan 2026 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 17, 2025/26
All predictions for Bundesliga matchday 17 of the 2025/26 season. From Stuttgart vs Frankfurt to Dortmund against Bremen. Current form and tips at a glance.
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Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 17, 2025/26
With matchday 18, the Bundesliga officially gets under way in the second half of the season, and it is already becoming clear just how pivotal this phase can be. After an intense midweek round of fixtures, there is little time to catch one’s breath, but all the more room for crucial decisions. Things are particularly tight at the bottom of the table. Six or seven teams are within striking distance of each other and look set to be locked in a fierce battle for the places above the relegation zone well into the closing stages of the season. Every point counts, and every head-to-head encounter can take on enormous significance as the campaign progresses.
The undisputed highlight of the matchday is the clash between RB Leipzig and FC Bayern Munich. It promises to be a real spectacle, not least because of the intriguing question of whether the contest will follow a similarly clear pattern to the reverse fixture or whether Leipzig will have much more to offer this time around.
MERKUR Quick Tips for Bundesliga Matchday 18
Bremen vs Frankfurt
Werder are in urgent need of a confidence boost after a toothless display in Dortmund. The commitment is clearly there, but the necessary efficiency in the final third is still lacking. For Frankfurt, meanwhile, the familiar pattern is once again evident: going forward there are repeated flashes of quality and plenty of pace, but defensively the side from Hesse simply cannot keep their lines compact. To make matters worse, there is another setback to contend with: winter signing Ebnoutalib, who had recently got on the scoresheet himself, will be sidelined for several weeks due to injury.
Prediction: 2
BVB vs St Pauli
The commanding 3-0 win over Bremen once again underlined the current maturity of Kovac’s side: defensively solid and ruthlessly clinical up front at the decisive moments. St. Pauli, meanwhile, recently suffered a late setback in the relegation battle in Wolfsburg. Despite a decent performance and being on level terms for long spells, the Hamburg side were once again denied a bit of luck. In Dortmund, Pauli will be under maximum pressure defensively. If BVB manage to apply pressure early on, there is a lot to suggest a clear home win.
Prediction: 1 + over 2.5 goals
Wolfsburg vs Heidenheim
VfL Wolfsburg have recently given the right response after the setback in Munich. The late win against St. Pauli felt like a weight off their shoulders, not least because the in-form Pejcinovic finally found the net. There is still room for improvement in terms of performance, but in the relegation battle it is above all points that matter at the moment – and those have been secured. Heidenheim, by contrast, remain stuck at the bottom of the table. The defeat in Mainz once again showed the same picture: plenty of commitment and some solid spells, but too little reward and repeated individual mistakes that end up turning matches against them.
Prediction: 1
HSV vs Leverkusen
With the emphatic 5-1 win over Gladbach, TSG Hoffenheim immediately sent out a statement on matchday 17. Above all, Andrej Kramaric was in scintillating form with a hat trick and is likely to be the key factor in attack again against Leverkusen. At Bayer, the situation is harder to assess. The postponed match against HSV has created a degree of uncertainty, especially as Die Werkself had previously suffered a heavy setback in the 1-4 defeat in Stuttgart. However, if Leverkusen rediscover the fluent, attacking football they showed in the weeks before, an open contest is certainly on the cards.
Prediction: X
Cologne vs Mainz
Even though the result against Bayern ultimately yielded no tangible reward, the performance should give Effzeh plenty of encouragement. Cologne looked purposeful and were on level terms with the record champions in the first half. Nevertheless, the sporting situation remains tense: the negative run continues, and despite some decent displays the pressure on both the team and the coach is steadily increasing. Mainz travel with renewed confidence. The home win against Heidenheim was hugely important in the relegation battle and may have given the Fischer side the necessary boost.
Prediction: X
HSV vs Gladbach
The pressure is slowly mounting for HSV. Three games without a win and most recently the postponement against Leverkusen have left the Hamburg side straining to, especially as off-field discussions surrounding Stefan Kuntz are creating the first distractions. The key question will be whether the team can block that out or once again appear tense. Gladbach, meanwhile, travel as something of an unknown quantity. The convincing 4-0 win over Augsburg was followed by a heavy setback in Hoffenheim, where Borussia were overrun early on and struggled to gain any defensive control.
Prediction: 2 + under 3.5 goals
Leipzig vs Bayern
Leipzig has visibly stabilised with the assured 2-0 win over Freiburg and boosted their confidence just in time for the summit clash. The Saxons looked patient, defensively disciplined, and, above all, extremely dangerous from set pieces – a pattern that could also prove an effective weapon against Bayern. Overall, RB appears to be back on track, even though the task against Bayern will be extremely tough. FC Bayern remain the benchmark. Although the Munich side showed occasional lapses in concentration, their individual quality once again told in the end. Kompany’s team remains versatile and efficient going forward and are currently almost unstoppable, even when the opposition manages to put up strong resistance for long spells.
Prediction: 1 + over 3.5 goals
Stuttgart vs Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart is gaining momentum. Two wins at the start of the new year, plenty of pace going forward and an attack that creates chances almost by the minute clearly speak in favour of the Swabians. Union Berlin travels with another morale-boosting point in the bag. From a playing perspective, much of it remains patchy, but under Baumgart the Iron Ones are once again hard to break down and stay competitive until the final whistle. Their strong defence and well-known threat from set pieces make Union dangerous on the road too, even if moments of attacking flair remain few and far between. Stuttgart are likely to control the game and set the tempo, while Union will dig in and wait for their moments.
Tip: 1 + under 3.5 goals
Augsburg vs Freiburg
Despite some decent performances, Augsburg is still waiting for a breakthrough. The late 1-1 draw against Union felt more like an unnecessary defeat and underlined the problem: FCA are often close but fail to see games through consistently. Freiburg, meanwhile, travels with mixed feelings. Against Leipzig, the Black Forest side held their own for a long time but were ultimately undone by set pieces. The personnel issues in defence also remain an ongoing concern. If SC Freiburg manages to keep things stable at the back, there is a lot to suggest a narrow away win.
Predictions: 2
MERKUR Bundesliga Matchday Forecast: Highlights of Matchday 18
Werder Bremen go into this match on the back of a solid but ultimately once again sobering performance against Borussia Dortmund. For long spells, the team showed structure, work rate and courage going forward, but once again lacked the necessary ruthlessness in exactly that area. As has so often been the case this season, Bremen are well organised, get into dangerous positions, but too rarely manage to turn these phases into goals. The definitive departure of Boniface does little to change this issue; his sporting impact was limited, but it underlines the fact that Werder is still searching for clear solutions in the final third.
Eintracht Frankfurt travels with mixed feelings after the defeat in Stuttgart. While the side from Hesse once again showed pace and attacking ideas, they suffered a significant setback: winter signing Younes Ebnoutalib picked up an injury and will be sidelined for the time being. In his first appearances, he had already hinted at just how much new dynamism he could bring to Frankfurt’s game. His absence now raises the question of whether the positive developments of recent weeks can be sustained without him. At least it has become clear that Frankfurt are operating more variably overall, with greater movement between the lines and bolder runs from midfield.
Prediction: Bremen are under pressure to deliver at home, while Frankfurt must prove that their attacking upturn is not dependent on one individual. However, the trend clearly points towards an away win for the visitors.
At Effzeh the signs are growing that this season is increasingly turning into a test of patience. Although FC Köln recently delivered a solid, committed performance against Bayern, they once again ended up empty-handed. Cologne is often competitive in terms of play, but fails to reward themselves for their efforts. The negative run continues, and in this phase every match becomes a mental stress test, especially when facing a direct rival.
Mainz travels to Cologne with momentum. The hard-fought 2-1 win over Heidenheim was more than just a crucial three points at the bottom of the table: it ended a long home drought and has given Urs Fischer’s team fresh belief in the relegation battle. While this performance was not without its shaky moments, the 05ers looked more purposeful for the first time in weeks, clearer in their processes and combative in the closing stages. Players such as Amiri and Widmer are once again taking responsibility, while Mainz as a whole appears more compact and is making fewer mistakes in build-up play.
Prediction: The pressure is clearly on Cologne. Mainz currently looks marginally more stable and composed, while nervousness is palpable at FC Köln. Should Cologne lose, things could also start to become tight for head coach Kwasniok.
RB Leipzig appears to have steadied themselves again after their recent win. Following a few weeks in which performances did not always meet their own expectations and consistency was lacking, there are now clear signs that the Saxons are looking more stable in their play and are entering a better phase. Additional hope comes from the expected return of Diomande to the starting line-up after his Africa Cup of Nations involvement. With his dynamism, pace and ability to break down defensive structures, he adds a new dimension to Leipzig’s attacking play. Especially against an opponent like Bayern, Diomande could become a key factor with his runs between the lines and in behind, repeatedly testing the Munich defence.
FC Bayern nevertheless travel as favourites. The Munich side has once again underlined their dominance in recent weeks and boasts enormous quality even when dealing with personnel absences. However, there are also question marks at the record champions: Stanisic is sidelined through injury, Laimer will be out for several weeks, and Joshua Kimmich remains doubtful. At the same time, there is the prospect of Jamal Musiala getting his first minutes after a months-long absence – an element that would immediately add extra creativity and unpredictability to Bayern’s game. Regardless of that, the level of individual quality in the squad remains high, meaning Vincent Kompany can continue to draw on a wide range of solutions.
Prediction: Leipzig are closer to their top level again and should give Bayern an intense, physical and tactically demanding evening. The record champions remain favourites due to their individual quality, but the match is likely to be far more evenly balanced than in the first half of the season.
