Bundesliga Matchday Prediction – Matchday 4, 2025/26

After the early-season euphoria under Sandro Wagner, FC Augsburg were brought back down to Bundesliga reality with a 1–2 defeat at St. Pauli. The FCA showed promising passages in the first half, but once again revealed significant weaknesses after the break – especially in defensive organisation and game control. The Fuggerstädter often look unsettled in the second half and are too easily knocked off their rhythm.

At 1. FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, crisis talk has already begun after just three matchdays. No wins, only one point, and a worryingly error-prone performance against Leipzig. To make matters worse, Nadiem Amiri publicly criticised the squad composition after the match, questioning whether the team is capable of coping with the demands of three competitions. Coach Bo Henriksen is under early pressure, particularly as the side lacks creativity and cutting edge going forward.

Historically, the two teams are evenly matched. Across 28 Bundesliga meetings, Augsburg have won 12, Mainz 13, with three draws. It has often been a battle of small margins, characterised by fight, tackles, and few goals.

Both sides know how important a win would be at this stage – not just for the table, but also for morale. But neither Augsburg nor Mainz show the stability right now to go into the clash as clear favourites.

Forecast: Augsburg make use of the early phase, Mainz respond strongly after the break. In the end, the sides share the spoils after an intense battle. Result: Draw.

Crisis summit at the Volksparkstadion: after three matchdays, HSV sit deep in the relegation zone with just one point and no goals scored. The heavy 0–5 defeat in Munich was not only a show of strength from Bayern but also laid bare deeper structural issues: too little attacking punch, a lack of confidence, and major defensive coordination problems. The promoted side look unsettled – and now face a home game already being labelled an early do-or-die clash.

Their opponents Heidenheim have also endured a season to forget so far. Frank Schmidt’s side have suffered three defeats, a red card for Zivzivadze, and injury woes (Pacarada). There are occasional flashes of attacking potential, but it simply hasn’t been enough to reach Bundesliga standard.

For both sides, victory is almost a must to avoid sinking even further into early-season crisis. The pressure is immense, nerves are fragile – whoever loses here will head into autumn with a heavy burden.

Forecast: Heidenheim pick up their first points of the season and edge a tight game 2–1.

Coaching drama in the Rhineland derby: Bayer Leverkusen celebrated an emotional breakthrough last weekend with a 3–1 win over Frankfurt – achieved despite being reduced to nine men. Coach Kasper Hjulmand, on his Bundesliga return, impressed with clever tactics, bold pressing, and a clear game plan. Above all, Alejandro Grimaldo stole the show: two beautifully struck free-kicks made him the matchwinner and sparked euphoria around the Werkself.

The situation could hardly be more different for their rivals. Borussia Mönchengladbach pulled the plug after a disastrous 0–4 defeat to Bremen, sacking coach Gerardo Seoane. No goals scored, just one point, and major issues across all areas of the team – the season start has been an outright failure. The derby threatens to bring the next setback, especially with Leverkusen brimming with new confidence.

Still, some caution is warranted: Leverkusen had to play midweek Champions League football in Copenhagen. The question is how well the squad can cope with the travel strain and triple workload – or whether Gladbach can seize the moment. What’s clear: the roles ahead of this Rhine clash could hardly be more clearly defined.

Forecast: Leverkusen confirm their upward trend and won’t be stopped by their Champions League trip. Gladbach remain goalless. Bayer win the derby 2–0.