01 
Franzi | Games
Franzi | Games 
26 Nov 2025 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 12, 2025/26
Predictions for Bundesliga Matchday 12 of the 2025/26 season. From Gladbach vs Leipzig to Leverkusen vs Dortmund. Current form, stats & tips at a glance.
approx. 3 min.
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 12, 2025/26
The Bundesliga is entering the hottest phase of the year, and our predictions for Matchday 12 promise several true benchmarks. League leaders Bayern Munich host a completely unsettled St. Pauli side, while RB Leipzig, fresh from an important win over Bremen, face a tricky test in Gladbach. In Leverkusen, we’re set for a top clash with an inconsistent Dortmund team desperately looking to bounce back. Things are heating up at the bottom of the table as well: Union Berlin face bottom-placed Heidenheim, who find themselves under massive pressure after heavy defeats. HSV take on an in-form Stuttgart, while Mainz fight for crucial relegation points in Freiburg. Intensity, emotion and decisive results – Matchday 12 could become a turning point for many teams.
MERKUR Quick Tips for Bundesliga Matchday 12
Gladbach vs Leipzig
Gladbach appear stable with five wins in a row, yet even during their strong 3–0 win in Heidenheim they revealed weaknesses in the final third and in tight defensive situations. Leipzig, however, are a significantly tougher opponent. RB looked dominant once again in their win over Bremen and remain Bayern’s first challenger. Gladbach won the most recent meeting 1–0, but the overall head-to-head clearly favours Leipzig.
Tip: Away win (2) + over 1.5 goals
Union Berlin vs Heidenheim
Union displayed strengths in pressing and set pieces with their solid 2–2 against Bayern and a laboured 1–0 over St. Pauli, yet they remain limited going forward. Heidenheim, meanwhile, are deep in crisis: a 0–6 in Leverkusen, a 0–3 vs Gladbach, hardly any chances and severe issues in the final third. In this form, Union are clear favourites, especially as Heidenheim look completely unsettled and sit bottom of the table.
Tip: Home win (1) + under 3.5 goals
Bremen vs Cologne
After five wins on the bounce, Werder Bremen suffered a 0–2 defeat in Leipzig – defensively solid but too harmless going forward, with their counterattacking approach failing to click. Still, Bremen seem more stable than Cologne. The Billy Goats have won only two of their last ten matches: impressive at times (as against Frankfurt), but defensively fragile and lacking creativity in key moments. Against a more structured Bremen side, problems are likely to persist.
Tip: Under 3.5 goals, both teams to score – No
Bayern Munich vs St. Pauli
Unbeaten in 18 competitive matches, Bayern are full of confidence, although they started sluggishly both in the draw against Union and in the 6–2 win over Freiburg – before eventually finding their usual rhythm. St. Pauli are unlikely to cause much concern. The Hamburg side are in deep crisis with eight consecutive Bundesliga defeats and offer very little in attack. Despite Bayern’s brief wobbles, almost everything points towards a heavy defeat for the visitors.
Tip: Home win (1) + over 3.5 goals
TSG Hoffenheim vs Augsburg
In mid-table, Hoffenheim sit in a promising, though expandable, seventh place. Six wins from eight matches, strong performances such as against Mainz, and a clear attacking intent have defined their recent displays. Augsburg, meanwhile, ended their losing streak with a narrow win over HSV but still lacked pace and threat. Hoffenheim should be able to exploit that ruthlessly.
Tip: Home win (1) + under 3.5 goals
Leverkusen vs Dortmund
Leverkusen are in strong form: following a 6–0 thrashing of Heidenheim, they produced a dominant 3–1 against Wolfsburg with early control and clinical finishing. Dortmund, by contrast, look unsettled after several draws and poor performances. Against Stuttgart, the BVB sat too deep and only grew into the game late on. In their current condition, Leverkusen hold clear advantages unless Dortmund rediscover their strength quickly.
Tip: Home win (1) + both teams to score – Yes
Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart
HSV dropped again after their defeat to Augsburg and failed to carry over momentum from the 1–1 draw against Dortmund. Without captain Poulsen, the team played cautiously, waited for counters and lacked pace as well as attacking ideas. All of which they will urgently need against Stuttgart. The visitors arrive with big momentum: Undav scored a hat-trick in Dortmund and led the team to a late comeback. Form, quality and confidence clearly favour Stuttgart.
Tip: Away win (2) + over 2.5 goals
Frankfurt vs Wolfsburg
Frankfurt have gained confidence with two wins and Burkardt’s brace against Cologne but still struggle with inconsistency – the draw against bottom-placed Heidenheim serves as a reminder. Wolfsburg, however, are in even worse shape: four defeats in a row and a disastrous first half in Leverkusen raise concerns. Interim manager Bauer hopes for improvement with tactical changes, but Eintracht currently hold the better cards.
Tip: Home win (1)
Freiburg vs Mainz
Freiburg showed courage and aggression against Bayern, taking a surprising 2–0 lead before collapsing completely and conceding six goals. Still, the team look more stable than Mainz, who displayed improvement in the second half against Hoffenheim but remain stuck in relegation trouble and must now cope with Kohr’s suspension. Despite Mainz’s strong head-to-head record, current form clearly favours Freiburg.
Tip: Home win (1) + under 2.5 goals
MERKUR Bundesliga Matchday Forecast: Highlights of Matchday 12
Third meets fourth in a duel between teams whose form curves could hardly be more different at the moment. Although the 92 previous encounters produced a fairly balanced win record, Leverkusen are enjoying an impressively mature season, while Dortmund once again find themselves in a difficult phase. Only weeks ago, things looked brighter for the BVB; after a short winning streak, they now face several draws and an inconsistent performance against Stuttgart. Dortmund’s tendency to drop too deep in big matches slows down their attacking potential. The team also suffered several painful defeats to Leverkusen in recent years. Perhaps they can draw strength from last season’s 4–2 win, as the squad still holds the individual quality needed to regain momentum.
Leverkusen recently combined early match control with high efficiency and showed stability and composure in their 3–1 win over Wolfsburg. The 6–0 thrashing of Heidenheim further underlined their attacking power and defensive balance. However, the absence of injured midfielders Ezequiel Fernández and Exequiel Palacios shouldn’t be underestimated. Dortmund are without centre-back Niklas Süle, while Ramy Bensebaini has returned to the pitch in the current Champions League match. Overall, Leverkusen go into this key fixture as structured, in-form favourites.
Prediction: Dortmund will focus on stability and try to control Leverkusen’s pace. However, the current form, home advantage and clear playing structure strongly favour the hosts. Much points towards Leverkusen taking control and securing another convincing victory.
As newcomers to the league, HSV face an in-form Stuttgart side on Matchday 12. Although the two teams currently show vastly different form curves, Hamburg shouldn’t be underestimated after their 1–1 draw against Dortmund. But in their recent 0–1 defeat to Augsburg, they slipped back into old patterns: little risk, lacking pace and too predictable without captain Poulsen. Counter-attacking attempts remained fragmented, and ideas in the final third were missing. Additional injuries, such as that of centre-back Warmed Omari (out until the end of the year), make matters worse.
Stuttgart also have injuries to cope with, but have recently relied successfully on the attacking power of players like Führich and Undav. The latter’s hat-trick in Dortmund secured the dramatic late comeback and should give the team enormous motivation. Despite missing out on a win, Stuttgart’s performance highlighted the team’s current strength: high pressing, secure passing structures and remarkable efficiency. Even after weaker phases, the VfB find their way back into the match. HSV will need to stay defensively disciplined and take more risks going forward — otherwise a difficult afternoon awaits.
Prediction: HSV are likely to start compact and look for transitions, but Stuttgart’s dynamism, form and confidence appear too strong at the moment. Most signs point to the VfB controlling the match and taking the three points.
Freiburg host Mainz in a match where both sides are seeking stability – albeit from very different starting points. Freiburg’s impressive opening phase against Bayern, leading 2–0, was overshadowed by a complete loss of control and six conceded goals. Nevertheless, the team currently look stronger than Mainz, sitting six places above them in 11th and notably more distanced from the relegation zone. One of the key factors has been 20-year-old midfield prospect Johan Manzambi, who scored his first goal of the season against Bayern.
Despite Mainz’s historically strong record against Freiburg, the situation looks bleak for them. Dominik Kohr’s suspension after receiving his ninth red card in the Bundesliga further weakens the defence. The late equaliser against Hoffenheim was a small positive moment but didn’t hide deeper problems: too little threat in attack, sloppy build-up play and defensive gaps. Mainz show effort but no clear structure. Freiburg, on the other hand, offer more balance, compactness and control – decisive factors ahead of Matchday 12.
Prediction: Mainz will try to keep the match close through determination and physicality, but Freiburg’s greater stability, home strength and structured approach point towards a win for the hosts. It seems likely that SC Freiburg will secure these crucial points at the Dreisam.
