It’s the final showdown in the relegation battle—a season finale couldn’t be any more decisive. St. Pauli and Wolfsburg head into the final matchday level on points, with the pressure on both sides at an all-time high. The Hamburg side showed fighting spirit and remained competitive for long stretches of their recent 1-2 loss in Leipzig, despite the defeat. Defensively, in particular, Blessin’s team remained solid for long stretches, shifted compactly, and allowed very little from open play. Offensively, however, they once again lacked the finishing touch. Kaars hit the crossbar, Ceesay pulled one back late in the game, but clear-cut chances were few and far between overall.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, is likely to draw confidence from their narrow 0-1 loss to Bayern. The Wolves played one of their strongest games of the second half of the season, particularly in the first half, and created numerous chances against the champions. Vinicius Souza, Eriksen, or Daghim could have put Wolfsburg ahead early on, and Svanberg hit the post shortly before the end. The fact that they didn’t come away with any points in the end was due more to a lack of finishing than to a weak performance.
Prediction: The key factor will be which team handles the pressure better. St. Pauli usually defends with discipline, but has recently struggled on set pieces and in transition—precisely where Wolfsburg showed its strongest form against Bayern.