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Franzi | Games 
18 Feb 2026 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga matchday prediction 2025/26 – Matchday 23
All predictions for the 23rd matchday of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season. From Bayern vs. Frankfurt to RB Leipzig vs. Dortmund. An overview of current form and tips.
Bundesliga matchday prediction 2025/26 – Matchday 23
The 23rd matchday of the Bundesliga is all about excitement: in the title race, in the race for Champions League places, and above all in the relegation battle. While Dortmund and Leipzig battle it out for big points in the top third of the table and FC Bayern are under pressure to keep their black-and-yellow pursuers at bay in their home game against Frankfurt, the bottom of the table is fighting for nothing less than sporting survival. St. Pauli vs. Werder Bremen is a real relegation final, a northern derby with six points at stake that no one can afford to lose. In short: the stage is set for a weekend that could be decisive – at the top and at the bottom.
Merkur quick tips for the 23rd match day of the Bundesliga
Mainz vs. HSV
Mainz must digest the bitter defeat against Dortmund: their winning streak has come to an end, and their offense has recently lacked the necessary punch. In front of their home crowd, FSV Mainz 05 will therefore be looking to get back on track. HSV travels with seven points from its last three games. That speaks for a promoted team that is defensively compact and finally dangerous again offensively – with Königsdörffer as the linchpin. If HSV continues to play with such composure, something should be possible away from home as well.
Tip: Draw
Bayern vs. Frankfurt
FC Bayern is back on track. The record champions were once again in command in their 3-0 win in Bremen, with Harry Kane leading the way with two goals and further extending his penalty record. Eintracht, on the other hand, ended their losing streak with a 3-0 win over Gladbach, and did so with astonishing efficiency. Three goals from few chances, no goals conceded, and an encouraging home debut for coach Riera. But in Munich, the young team is likely to face a very different test.
Tip: 1 + over 3.5 goals
Wolfsburg vs. Augsburg
VfL Wolfsburg's form continues to fluctuate wildly: in Leipzig, it looked like an away win for a long time, but in the end, despite taking the lead twice, they only managed a 2-2 draw. FC Augsburg continues its quiet upward trend. The narrow 1-0 win against Heidenheim was already the third victory in the last four games – even if the performance was rather sobering for long stretches.
Tip: Draw
Union Berlin vs. Leverkusen
Union Berlin is still waiting for a win. The defeat at HSV was their seventh game in a row without a victory. Although they weren't far off against the Hanseatic side, their attack was once again too toothless and their defense made too many mistakes. Werkself, on the other hand, continues to march on: their commanding 4-0 win against St. Pauli was never in danger – an early double strike, total control, and two more impressive goals at the end. Week after week, Bayer shows why they are among the favorites for the Champions League spots.
Tip: 2 + over 3.5 goals
Köln vs. Hoffenheim
Two late goals sealed Cologne's away defeat in Stuttgart and thus their second defeat in a row. Despite great effort and a temporary equalizer, FC Cologne once again came away with nothing to show for their efforts. The situation was quite different for TSG Hoffenheim: with a 3-0 win over Freiburg, the Kraichgauers not only set a new club record of eight home wins in a row, but also showed impressive stability after their setback in Munich. Coufal was the outstanding player with two assists.
Tip: 2
Leipzig vs. BVB
RB Leipzig are desperate to get back to winning ways in their top-of-the-table clash with BVB, having dropped points against Wolfsburg despite creating numerous chances. They fell behind twice but managed to equalize on both occasions, although that is not enough to secure a Champions League spot at the moment. The Black and Yellows, on the other hand, are still unbeaten in the Bundesliga in 2026 and recently celebrated their sixth league win in a row. Ryerson shone against Mainz with four assists, while the resurgent Guirassy scored twice. Leipzig will need to be at their best to stop Dortmund's run.
Tip: Draw
Freiburg vs. Gladbach
Freiburg looked anything but fresh in their clear 0-3 defeat in Hoffenheim, with the intense 120 minutes of cup action during the week clearly taking its toll on the team. Before that, however, the Sport-Club had celebrated two competitive wins in a row and showed that they are capable of improving in the new year. The situation is quite different for Borussia Mönchengladbach: the 3-0 defeat in Frankfurt was already their sixth game in a row without a win. They often lack punch in attack and are making too many mistakes in defense. The Foals are slowly running out of steam, and nerves are likely to play a part in Freiburg too.
Tip: 1
St. Pauli vs. Bremen
After a clear 0-4 defeat against Leverkusen, the Kiezkickers have now suffered their ninth away defeat. Above all, their offense was lacking against Bayer. Werder Bremen travels to the Elbe with similar concerns. Their performance against Bayern was courageous, but once again they lacked the necessary punch up front. There were chances, but they were rarely compelling, and defensively they were simply too vulnerable against the big names. This northern derby pits two teams against each other who desperately need points and have struggled recently.
Tip: Draw
Heidenheim vs. Stuttgart
Heidenheim remains deep in the relegation battle. Frank Schmidt's team has now gone nine games without a win. There was more to be had in the 0-1 defeat in Augsburg, but once again FCH failed to capitalize on their best chances. VfB quickly recovered from their slip-up at St. Pauli and showed their clinical finishing in the closing stages again in their 3-1 win over Cologne. Demirovic and Undav continue to score reliably, and the substitutes are also making an impact. The team is now traveling to the derby at Brenz with their heads held high.
Tip: 2
Merkur Bundesliga matchday predictions: The highlights of matchday 23
After a commanding 3-0 win in Bremen, FC Bayern has brought some calm to its own house, at least in the short term. The clear response to the previous discussions about playing style, dropped points, and fluctuations in form was a statement, led by Harry Kane, who once again proved his class with a brace. But despite the clear result, Bayern still have work to do: BVB are still hot on their heels, and they can hardly afford any more mistakes, especially with the “Klassiker” coming up on the next matchday.
Eintracht Frankfurt are now traveling to Munich as opponents who, after seven games without a win, finally had something to cheer about again with their 3-0 victory over Gladbach. Under new coach Albert Riera, the Hessians appeared more compact, determined, and, above all, efficient. Bahoya shone with two assists, and Eintracht also looked more stable defensively. But this is precisely where the real test awaits in Munich: Was the Gladbach game a sustainable step forward or just a brief upswing against a weak opponent?
For Frankfurt, it will be important not only to remain compact defensively, but also to keep up physically and mentally at the highest level. Bayern will apply pressure early on, using pace, depth, and intensity. Whether the newly formed defense can withstand this could be decisive, also with regard to the coming weeks in the tight battle for international places.
Prediction: Bayern goes into the game as the favorite. But if Frankfurt manages to close down the right spaces and remain courageous in transition moments, a surprise cannot be completely ruled out.
This match is crucial – for both teams, there is much more at stake than just three points. Borussia Dortmund has a lot riding on this game: BVB not only wants to add another chapter to its impressive Bundesliga run in 2026, but also to keep the pressure on Bayern Munich. Any loss of points would further exacerbate their already difficult position in the title race, especially as they face a direct duel with the record champions on the next matchday. In this respect, this game is no ordinary league match, but a possible key to an open championship final. Dortmund cannot afford to be careless here.
For RB Leipzig, this match is almost a six-point game in the battle for Champions League places. The Saxons are lurking just behind the top four and urgently need to make up ground to avoid losing touch with the Champions League places. A win against a direct rival like BVB would not only be a big step up the table, but also a huge psychological boost. The 2-2 draw against Wolfsburg showed that Leipzig will not give up without a fight, but at the same time it also revealed weaknesses in converting chances and defensive vulnerabilities that are quickly punished at this level.
Prediction: Dortmund does not want to lose touch with Bayern and keep a possible final match in the championship race open, while Leipzig needs to catch up in the table and close a gaping hole to the Champions League ranks. It is a duel in which two different but equally ambitious playing concepts clash.
Sunday's match at Millerntor is under immense pressure to survive: 17th place against 16th place, St. Pauli against Werder Bremen – only two points separate the northern rivals. The sporting situation leaves no room for interpretation: it is a classic six-point game. The loser risks falling decisively behind in the relegation battle, and a St. Pauli victory could see Bremen slip into a direct relegation spot.
There is a lot at stake for Werder Bremen and possibly also for new coach Daniel Thioune. The team has suffered two defeats since he took office – and there has been no turnaround in fortunes so far. If this basement battle is also lost, things are likely to get uncomfortable again around the Weser after just a few days. There is a lot at stake: self-confidence, calm in the environment, and sporting survival. After all, Werder had a decent start in Munich, played courageously, and had good chances through Grüll and Schmid. But as so often this season, Bremen lacked the final touch in front of goal.
St. Pauli, meanwhile, is also fighting for its sporting survival. After a devastating 0-4 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen, criticism was loud, even though there was little to be gained against the strong Leverkusen team. Nevertheless, nine away defeats and only four wins in the entire season – the Kiezkickers' statistics make for bitter reading. However, their home strength gives cause for hope: teams such as Stuttgart have recently been beaten at the Millerntor, and that is exactly what they want to hold on to.
Prediction: A relegation battle with maximum stakes for both clubs. Werder must deliver, otherwise Thioune will immediately come under pressure. Pauli must score points, otherwise the gap to 16th place threatens to become unbridgeable.
