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Franzi | Games 
11 Feb 2026 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga matchday prediction 2025/26 – Matchday 22
All predictions for the 22nd Bundesliga matchday 2025/26. From Dortmund vs. Mainz to Bremen vs. Bayern. Current form and tips at a glance.
Bundesliga matchday prediction 2025/26 – Matchday 22
Will there be another shake-up at the top this season? Matchday 22 of the Bundesliga has plenty of material for big questions and small preliminary decisions. Bayern are under pressure, Dortmund are still lurking, and behind them, the tone is becoming harsher. While the record champions are slowly getting back on track after some recent fluctuations in form, BVB are not always collecting points in spectacular fashion, but with remarkable consistency, keeping the pressure high in the title race. The situation is also coming to a head away from the top. At the bottom of the table, for some clubs it is no longer a question of form, but of survival. Every point counts, every lapse in concentration can be costly – especially in direct duels where nervousness and courage are evenly balanced.
Merkur quick tips for the 22nd match day of the Bundesliga
BVB vs. Mainz
BVB's late victory in Wolfsburg earned them three points, but once again they conceded too much defensively. BVB were under pressure several times, especially in the second half. The game was ultimately saved by Guirassy's individual class. Borussia will have to be more stable against Mainz, especially as Schlotterbeck, a key player, is suspended. Mainz are one of the strongest teams in the league at the moment. Four wins in the new year, great composure in their play, and Amiri, who never misses from the spot. The 05ers don't need a long time to get going; they wait for mistakes and punish them.
Tip: Draw
Leverkusen vs. St. Pauli
Four wins in a row had Bayer Leverkusen on a roll before the 1-1 draw in Mönchengladbach slowed them down a bit. Nevertheless, this one slip-up should quickly become a footnote against St. Pauli – a home win is firmly on the cards. But this is precisely where the danger lurks. St. Pauli are traveling with confidence, their first win of 2026 against Stuttgart making a statement in the relegation battle. The Kiezkickers play with passion and compactness and are always capable of landing pinpricks.
Tip: 1
Frankfurt vs. Gladbach
Even with Albert Riera making his debut, SGE remained winless, with the 1-1 draw at Union once again revealing a central problem: control without punch. In the end, an unnecessary red card even cost them a possible victory under their new coach. Gladbach are now coming up, an opponent who are not brimming with confidence themselves, but who have recently shown morale. The 1-1 draw against Leverkusen was defensively solid, intensely competitive, and showed that the Foals can perform well, especially against strong teams.
Tip: Draw
Bremen vs. Bayern
There is currently a harsh wind blowing on the Weser. Even the change of coach has not had an immediate effect on Werder Bremen: despite having a man advantage for long periods, they suffered another defeat in Freiburg. SVW are deep in the relegation battle and have been waiting for a win for eleven games. FC Bayern is back with a clear statement, led by Luis Díaz, who has been outstanding recently. Offensively present, ice-cold in front of goal and back to his usual potent self, he is exactly what the Säbener Straße wanted to see. For Werder, it's an “all or nothing” game, for Bayern, it's a must-win.
Tip: 2 + over 3.5 goals
Hoffenheim vs. Freiburg
The streak is over, but the impression remains: despite being a man down early on, Hoffenheim showed spirit in Munich and caused FC Bayern real problems at times. The first defeat of 2026 is therefore likely to shake up Ilzer's team rather than slow them down. SC Freiburg arrives with a classic hard-fought victory under its belt. An early goal against Bremen was enough, after which the Breisgauers defended with discipline and passion, even when down a man.
Tip: 1 + under 3.5 goals
HSV vs. Union Berlin
In Heidenheim, Hamburg presented themselves as mature, efficient, and defensively stable – led by an outstanding Heuer Fernandes and a clinical Königsdörffer. The promoted team suddenly looks solid and is picking up points where others are getting nervous in the relegation battle. Union, on the other hand, is still searching for its identity. Even against Frankfurt, it wasn't enough for a redeeming victory; instead, it suffered another setback. Offensively, much remains piecemeal, while defensively, the team lacks the final push at crucial moments.
Tip: 2 + under 3.5 goals
Stuttgart vs. Köln
VfB are under pressure. The defeat at Millerntor was a noticeable setback for the Swabians, who remained surprisingly uninspired in attack. This pattern needs to be corrected quickly in front of their home crowd. 1. FC Köln was at least equal to RB. Against Leipzig, FC showed morale and good play and came very close to earning a point – but was ultimately thwarted by a controversial offside decision. This is exactly the kind of play that is needed now in Stuttgart. Excitement is guaranteed, especially because both teams know that playing well alone is not enough.
Tip: 1
Augsburg vs. Heidenheim
FC Augsburg has been slowed down for the first time in weeks. The defeat in Mainz was clear, but it was less a collapse than the result of a lack of efficiency and two penalties against them. Nevertheless, FCA wants to get back on track immediately in front of its home crowd. For 1. FC Heidenheim, on the other hand, there is now much more at stake than just form. The defeat against HSV was another setback at the bottom of the table – too harmless in terms of play, too uninspired up front. The air in the relegation battle is getting noticeably thinner.
Tip: Draw
Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg
RB's victory was not a masterpiece, but it was an important step out of their minor slump – thanks to Baumgartner and a bit of luck. Leipzig will need exactly the same mix this time around, because there is still room for improvement in their play, while the cup and league schedule leaves them little time to catch their breath. VfL Wolfsburg travels with a lot of frustration. Against Dortmund, the team put in one of its best performances of the season and still came away empty-handed. Chances every minute, shots off the woodwork, missed one-on-one situations: the Wolves were close, but didn't reward themselves.
Tip: Draw
Merkur Bundesliga matchday predictions: The highlights of matchday 22
Borussia Dortmund continues to collect point after point – even if things don't always go smoothly. The late victory in Wolfsburg was typical of recent weeks: not consistently convincing in terms of play, with a bit of luck here and there, but ultimately another three points on the board. It is precisely this ability to win close or shaky games that keeps BVB in the title race. Dortmund remains unbeaten in the Bundesliga in 2026, with its only defeats so far coming on the big stage of the Champions League. Domestically, BVB continues to put constant pressure on Bayern.
However, Mainz is a team that knows exactly how to make things difficult. The Rheinhessen are one of the strongest teams in the league in the new year. Under Urs Fischer, Mainz is extremely stable, composed, and surprisingly effective. Four wins in 2026 speak for themselves, and with Amiri, the 05ers have a player who can decide games even without a spectacular offensive display. Mainz are currently ice-cold from the spot, and overall the team is performing very maturely.
Prediction: Mainz will sit deep, look for tackles and lie in wait for mistakes. Dortmund must find solutions without getting bogged down and must not become careless defensively, because that is exactly what Mainz are currently punishing mercilessly.
The task facing SV Werder Bremen could hardly be greater. Following the change of coach, the team is still waiting for the long-awaited breakthrough, and now FC Bayern of all teams is coming to the Weser. The defeat in Freiburg has further exacerbated the situation: despite having a numerical advantage for long periods, Bremen lacked conviction and the final punch. The winless streak is growing, the pressure is mounting, and the air is noticeably thinning at the bottom of the table. The only positive is that the team is fighting – but commitment alone is rarely enough against the record champions.
After two winless league games, Munich made an impressive comeback and sent a clear signal with their convincing victory against Hoffenheim. Bayern showed their enormous offensive power and individual class, led by Luis Díaz, who left his mark on the game. It is precisely such performances that should dispel the recent doubts and finally end the mini-slump. For Bayern, it's not just about three points, but also about control in the title race. Dortmund are still hot on their heels, and any slip-up would create new tension.
Prediction: On paper, the roles are clearly defined, but it is precisely these kinds of games that hold the potential for Bayern to stumble if they are not fully focused. For Bremen, it would be a game of hope, for Munich a must-win with maximum expectations.
VfB Stuttgart faces a decisive task. The defeat at Millerntor was a minor setback in what had previously been a stable phase in which the Swabians had steadily worked their way up the table. Now they need to react quickly and show the form in their own stadium that has made Stuttgart so unpredictable this season. A clear improvement is expected, especially in attack. Players such as Undav, Führich and Demirović have recently failed to perform to their full potential, with their dominance in possession too rarely translating into real danger. Against Cologne, the aim will be different: more pace in the final third, more consistency in front of goal and, above all, an early grip on the game.
1. FC Köln, on the other hand, travels to Stuttgart with mixed feelings. Against Leipzig, the FC showed morale, came back into the game, and was evenly matched for long stretches. In the end, however, they lacked that little bit of luck, and a controversial offside decision may have prevented the equalizer. Nevertheless, Cologne presented themselves courageously and much more stable than a few weeks ago. They have a cushion between them and the relegation zone, but they cannot afford to be complacent.
Prediction: The game promises to be pure excitement: Stuttgart wants to prove that the defeat was a blip, while Cologne wants to show that it can hold its own against an ambitious opponent.
