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Franzi | Games 
11-Sep-2025 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 3 2025/26
All predictions for the 3rd Bundesliga matchday 2025/26: from Bayern vs. HSV to Leverkusen vs. Frankfurt. Current form, stats, and tips at a glance.
approx. 3 min.
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 3 2025/26
League mode off, national team mode on – the first international break of the season is here!
Who will collect the first points in qualification, and who will stumble right at the start? Istanbul will be buzzing when Turkey hosts the newly crowned European champion. And the German team also wants to show on matchday one exactly where the journey is headed.
Questions upon questions – but no answers (yet). What we do have: the right bets.
MERKUR Quciktipps:
Leverkusen vs. Frankfurt
Leverkusen head into the match with new coach Kasper Hjulmand after the dismissal of Erik ten Hag – but the atmosphere remains tense. Frankfurt arrive brimming with confidence after two convincing wins. Bayer will have to cope with the loss of Hincapié in defence. Goals look almost certain.
Tip: Away win (2) + over 1.5 goals
Freiburg vs. Stuttgart
Freiburg have lost a key player in Merlin Röhl, while Stuttgart must cope with the major departure of Nick Woltemade. Both sides are short in attack and look more predictable going forward. In this derby, much points to a tactically shaped encounter. Goals are likely to be in short supply.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals
Mainz vs. Leipzig
Mainz have made a mixed start to the season. Leipzig lost plenty of quality with Loïs Openda and Xavi Simons, but brought in new talent up front with Conrad Harder. Both teams have pace and attacking intent – but still show defensive weaknesses.
Tip: Away win (2) + both teams to score
Union Berlin vs. Hoffenheim
Union stay true to their style: compact, defensively solid, no Deadline Day spectacles. Hoffenheim brought in Hajdari for the defence, but he will need time to settle in. Set pieces could prove decisive here.
Tip: Correct score bet 1–1
Wolfsburg vs. Köln
Wolfsburg have started the season with 4 points from two games. Köln have been one of the surprises of the opening matchdays, heading into this clash with a perfect record. At home, though, the Wolves are traditionally strong. A narrow home win looks likely.
Tip: Home win (1) + over 1.5 goals
Heidenheim vs. Dortmund
Heidenheim are still waiting for their first point. Dortmund, meanwhile, have strengthened significantly with Silva, Chukwuemeka and Anselmino. The gulf in quality is huge, though the underdogs will look to surprise through sheer effort.
Tip: Handicap 1:0 – Away win (2)
Bayern vs. HSV
Bayern added attacking depth late on Deadline Day with Nicolas Jackson, while HSV responded with Vieira and Lokonga from Arsenal. But history is merciless: 9–2, 8–0, 6–0 – Munich have regularly torn Hamburg apart. The champions are overwhelming favourites.
Tip: Home win (1) + over 4.5 goals
St. Pauli vs. Augsburg
St. Pauli head into their home match with four points and plenty of derby euphoria, while Augsburg arrive full of confidence after a strong start under Sandro Wagner. Both teams are known for bold attacking football – goals look almost certain. In the end, though, their offensive power could cancel each other out.
Tip: Draw (X) + both teams to score
Gladbach vs. Bremen
Gladbach lost Weigl but brought in Reyna, a talented new playmaker. Bremen also made a statement on Deadline Day by signing Boniface. Gladbach are still searching for their first goal of the season – but the breakthrough is coming.
Tip: Both teams to score – Yes
The MERKUR Bundesliga Matchday Forecast in Detail
On Friday evening, Bayer Leverkusen open the 3rd Bundesliga matchday against Eintracht Frankfurt. After a chaotic start, a lot is already at stake for the Werkself: a 1–2 loss to Hoffenheim, a 3–3 draw against Bremen, and the swift dismissal of Erik ten Hag caused major unrest. Now, Kasper Hjulmand takes over as the new coach, aiming to bring structure and balance. But whether he can provide stability in such a short time remains doubtful.
Frankfurt, meanwhile, travel with maximum confidence. Two wins to start the season and a 7–2 goal difference speak for themselves. New signing Jonathan Burkardt, Ritsu Doan, and Can Uzun impressed in attack, while the midfield with Larsson and Chaïbi kept things under control. Leverkusen may have quality in their squad, but they look shaky at the back and mentally fragile.
Historically, Leverkusen hold the upper hand, having won the last five meetings with Frankfurt and remaining unbeaten at home. But current form tells a different story.
Forecast: Frankfurt capitalise on Leverkusen’s uncertainty and win a high-scoring clash 3–1.
On Saturday, SC Freiburg host VfB Stuttgart for the Baden derby. After two heavy defeats, much is already at stake for the Breisgauer: a 1–3 loss to Augsburg and a 1–4 defeat in Cologne mark their worst season start in years. Under coach Julian Schuster, the team looks defensively vulnerable and offensively harmless – urgent corrections are needed.
Stuttgart arrive with a slight tailwind. After a 1–2 loss at Union Berlin, they secured their first win of the season with a 1–0 victory over Gladbach. New signing Chema Andrés scored the decisive goal, while keeper Alexander Nübel ensured the win. Still, the departure of top striker Nick Woltemade leaves a gap to be filled. The failed last-minute transfer of Hyeon-gyu Oh and the injury to Deniz Undav also complicate offensive planning for coach Hoeneß.
Clashes between Freiburg and Stuttgart are usually tightly contested, marked by intensity and narrow scorelines. Freiburg urgently need to find stability, while Stuttgart aim to build on their positive momentum.
Forecast: Stuttgart edge a close derby 1–0.
After seven years in the 2. Bundesliga, Hamburger SV finally face FC Bayern again – and it’s away in the Allianz Arena of all places. For the northern fans, trips to Munich come with bitter memories: between 2010 and 2018, HSV suffered one thrashing after another, including the infamous 2–9 (2012), two 0–8 hammerings (2015 and 2017), and a 0–6 in March 2018. The record: Bayern won nine of the last ten meetings, with a goal difference of 38–3.
The roles are once again clearly defined. HSV sit on just one point and no goals after two matches. The derby defeat against St. Pauli (0–2) was a real setback, with a clear lack of attacking threat.
Bayern, under Vincent Kompany, have already sent a strong message: a 6–0 opening win over RB Leipzig, followed by a 3–2 away victory at Augsburg. With Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Luis Díaz, their attack is firing on all cylinders – nine goals in two games speak volumes.
Forecast: Everything points to a one-sided encounter. Bayern will showcase their attacking power and win comfortably. A victory by at least four goals is likely.
