2 Jun 2026 | Sportsbetting
2026 World Cup Dark Horses: These Teams Could Be Surprises
Which dark horse in the 2026 World Cup has the potential to pull off an upset? We take a look at Senegal, Morocco, Croatia, and others. With current odds from MERKUR BETS.
approx. 5 min.
2026 World Cup Dark Horses: These Teams Could Be Surprises
Spain, France, and England dominate the betting odds, but who are the dark horses for the 2026 World Cup? The history of the World Cup teaches us one thing: the tournament writes its own stories. Morocco shocked the entire soccer world in 2022 with its spectacular run to the World Cup semifinals. Japan eliminated Germany that same year, while Croatia made it to the final four in the last two tournaments. With 48 nations competing, the 2026 World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico offers more potential for surprises than ever before.
2026 World Cup: Dark Horses
- Senegal
- Morocco
- Austria
- Croatia
- Mexico
- Japan
- Colombia
The odds for the dark horses
| Colombia | Odds: 35.00 |
| Japan | Odds: 50.00 |
| Morocco | Odds: 50.00 |
| Mexico | Odds: 80.00 |
| Croatia | Odds: 80.00 |
| Senegal | Odds: 100.00 |
| Austria | Odds: 150.00 |
| Odds: 35.00 |
| Odds: 50.00 |
| Odds: 50.00 |
| Odds: 80.00 |
| Odds: 80.00 |
| Odds: 100.00 |
| Odds: 150.00 |
2026 World Cup: A Brief Look at the Dark Horses
Senegal
Senegal is the runner-up in the Africa Cup of Nations and heads to North America as the second-highest-ranked African nation in the FIFA World Rankings. Tactically, Senegal relies on compactness and physical presence, combined with quick counterattacks.
In World Cup Group I, Senegal faces France and Norway: one of the toughest groups in the tournament. Whoever emerges from this group unscathed will have already proven their mettle against any opponent in the knockout stage.
Morocco
Morocco is ranked eighth in the world, and rightly so: after finishing fourth at the 2022 World Cup, Morocco went undefeated in this year’s World Cup qualifiers with eight wins in eight games. The defense led by Romain Saïss is well-drilled, and the squad, featuring players from the Spanish, English, and French leagues, is packed with talent.
In World Cup Group C , Brazil presents a real challenge. Scotland and Haiti, on the other hand, are more than manageable opponents. That’s another reason why they are among the hottest dark horses of the 2026 World Cup.
Austria
Austria is returning to the World Cup stage after 28 years, and it’s doing so with a system that has already caused a sensation in Europe. Ralf Rangnick has transformed the Austrian national team into a high-intensity pressing side.
Austria has quality in every position. In World Cup Group J, Argentina is the clear favorite, but with Algeria and Jordan as the remaining group opponents, they are definitely beatable. In the new 48-team format, at least third place in the group is required, and that is anything but a pipe dream for Austria.
Croatia
If there’s one team you should never count out, it’s Croatia. Finalists in 2018, semifinalists in 2022. This consistency is no longer a coincidence.
At 40, Luka Modrić still has an eye for the decisive pass. A hungry generation has developed around him: Mateo Kovačić, Ivan Perišić, Joško Gvardiol. In World Cup Group L, they face a heavyweight in England, but Croatia is already very familiar with such matches.
Mexico
El Tri is one of the host nations for the 2026 World Cup, and home-field advantage could give them a boost. Tens of thousands of fans will create a unique atmosphere at the Azteca Stadium and in Monterrey.
Mexico has been battling the so-called “Quinto Partido” curse for years: since 1994, Mexico has failed to advance past the Round of 16 every time. With a well-coordinated squad drawn from Mexico’s top domestic league and Europe’s top leagues, and under the guidance of national team coach Javier Aguirre, the team aims to break this spell. Advancing to the knockout stage as the top team in World Cup Group A is the prerequisite for a long run in the tournament.
Japan
In recent years, Japan has established itself as a stable team among the world’s elite. The victories against Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup were no fluke, but rather the result of a mentally strong team with a clear game plan.
Many of the team’s regulars play in the German Bundesliga and other European leagues, including Takumi Minamino, Daichi Kamada, and Ritsu Doan. Tactically, Japan relies on compact midfield pressing with clear transition plays.
In World Cup Group F , alongside the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia, advancing to the Round of 16 is a realistic goal.
Colombia
Colombia is perhaps one of the most underrated teams in this World Cup. In the South American qualifiers, the Colombians finished third—and that was in a group that included Argentina and Brazil. The squad has improved significantly over the past two years.
The 2024 Copa América final against Argentina was their biggest success in recent years. Colombia lost by a narrow margin, but showed the most consistent performance of any team throughout the tournament. In World Cup Group K [SH1], their chances of advancing are very good.
Which dark horse has the most potential?
The 2026 World Cup, featuring 48 teams, is the largest and most open tournament in history. More teams, more knockout matches, more opportunities for the so-called “smaller” nations.
Our seven dark horses, from the hottest bet to the biggest underdog:
- Colombia: 2024 Copa América finalist, strong qualifying campaign, the most technically skilled squad in our group
- Morocco: Ranked eighth in the world with proven tournament experience, 2022 World Cup semifinalist
- Japan: Consistent, well-drilled, and proven in knockout matches against top teams
- Mexico: Hosts with home-field advantage who can turn pressure and motivation into energy
- Croatia: The most consistent tournament nation of the last two World Cups
- Senegal: African runners-up with world-class players, but in one of the toughest groups of the tournament
- Austria: With Rangnick’s pressing system, they can knock anyone out of the tournament
Do you already have a secret favorite for the 2026 World Cup in mind? At MERKUR BETS , you’ll find all the latest and best odds for the tournament.
FAQ – Dark Horse for the 2026 World Cup
A dark horse brings proven quality to the table: tournament experience, a well-established roster, and a system that works. It is underestimated simply because public attention is focused elsewhere. An underdog, on the other hand, actually has little chance: limited World Cup experience, a weaker squad, and virtually no realistic prospects of advancing to the knockout rounds. Morocco and Croatia are dark horses. Cape Verde and Uzbekistan are underdogs.
Before the tournament begins, the odds on dark horses are usually the highest. Those who bet early get the best odds. Those who want a bit more certainty should wait for the first group stage matches: Odds for dark horses often remain attractive for a long time, while you already have an initial sense of form. It’s also worth checking out alternative markets like “Reaching the Semifinals.” The odds there are priced more realistically than for the tournament winner.
Definitely yes. The top two teams from each group and the eight best third-place teams advance, which makes an early elimination much less likely. For teams like Austria or Japan, whose strengths tend to shine in knockout matches, this is a real structural advantage compared to previous tournaments.
This is very important. A simple draw can make the difference between advancing from the group stage and reaching the quarterfinals. Senegal, for example, is in a group with France and Norway—one of the toughest groups. Colombia, on the other hand, has drawn a much more manageable group (Group K), which makes their chances of going deep in the tournament a realistic possibility.
More realistic than ever before. Morocco is ranked eighth in the FIFA World Rankings and became the first African team to reach the World Cup semifinals in 2022. Senegal is the reigning African champion, with a squad made up mostly of players from top European leagues. All that’s missing is that final step—but the talent to achieve it is there.
