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Franzi | Games
Franzi | Games 
24 Sept 2025 | Sportsbetting
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 5, 2025/26
All predictions for the 5th Bundesliga matchday 2025/26: From Bayern vs. Bremen to Mainz vs. Dortmund. Current form, statistics, and betting tips at a glance.
approx. 3 min.
Bundesliga Matchday Forecast – Matchday 5, 2025/26
The Bundesliga is picking up speed, and the 5th matchday brings plenty of excitement. League leaders Bayern continue their historic start (12 points, 18:3 goals) and now face a shaky Bremen side.
Pressure is mounting in Heidenheim and Augsburg, while Dortmund and Leipzig appear confident. The Rhine-Main derby between Gladbach and Frankfurt promises drama – both teams dropped points recently. And the clash between Union Berlin and HSV already feels like a key battle for big points early in the season.
Merkur Quick Tips for Bundesliga Matchday 5
Bayern vs. Bremen
Bayern remain the gold standard – 12 points, 18:3 goals, best season start in history. Kane shined with a hat-trick, Kompany rotated smartly, and will field the A-team again against Bremen. Bremen’s glimmer of hope after the 4:0 win over Gladbach vanished quickly: a 0:3 loss to Freiburg exposed defensive frailties and lack of attacking punch. In Munich, another setback looms.
Tip: Correct score bet 4:1
Mainz vs. Dortmund
Mainz built confidence with a 4:1 against Augsburg – scoring twice while a man down. Sano impressed as playmaker and scorer. But Dortmund are another challenge: with a 1:0 win over Wolfsburg, the BVB secured their third straight victory and underlined their ambitions. Mainz aim to use home advantage, Dortmund must keep pace with Bayern.
Tip: Away win + both teams to score
Wolfsburg vs. Leipzig
Leipzig are in strong form after three straight wins. Their latest, a 3:1 against Cologne, highlighted their dynamic wings with Bakayoko and Diomandé. Wolfsburg held Dortmund for long spells but lacked attacking bite. Leipzig arrive with greater momentum and confidence.
Tip: Away win + over 3.5 goals
St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen
St. Pauli suffered their first loss of the season against Stuttgart but showed spirit and courage. However, against dominant teams they still struggle. Leverkusen dropped two points late in a 1:1 with Gladbach but remain stable and creative under Hjulmand. Offensively, Bayer are far more dangerous than Pauli.
Tip: Away win + under 3.5 goals
Heidenheim vs. Augsburg
Two teams, one problem: Heidenheim are still chasing their first point, despite a brave effort in Hamburg. Augsburg collapsed in a 1:4 against Mainz – especially defensively. Coach Wagner made four changes at halftime, but nothing worked. Heidenheim lack efficiency, Augsburg lack structure.
Tip: Correct score 2:2
Gladbach vs. Frankfurt
Gladbach showed new resilience under Polanski: fight, morale, and two substitutes earned a last-minute 1:1 against Leverkusen. Frankfurt’s 3:4 loss to Union was bitter – despite a strong comeback, they were undone by Berlin’s efficiency. The Eagles looked vulnerable in possession and defensively shaky. Will this week bring the turnaround?
Tip: Over 3.5 goals
Freiburg vs. Hoffenheim
Freiburg come off a confident 3:0 win in Bremen – Grifo and Atubolu were standout performers. The team looked defensively solid and efficient. Hoffenheim, in contrast, were overpowered 1:4 by Bayern. They started bravely, wasted early chances, and paid the price. Against Freiburg, finishing will be key.
Tip: Draw
1. FC Köln vs. Stuttgart
Cologne lost in Leipzig – their first defeat of the season – but showed commitment, only lacking sharpness at key moments. Defensively, weaknesses were exposed before halftime. Stuttgart, however, impressed in a mature performance against St. Pauli. After a slow start, the team looks sharper, more ruthless, and physically stronger.
Tip: Over 3.5 goals
FC Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV
Union’s 4:3 win in Frankfurt was all about efficiency – Burke struck three times, while Baumgart’s side thrived with pressing and composure. HSV broke their long dry spell with a 2:1 against Heidenheim, their first Bundesliga win in over seven years. Still, defensive issues remain. At the Alte Försterei, another intense battle is expected. A crucial three points are at stake for both.
Tip: Correct score 2:1
MERKUR Bundesliga Matchday Forecast: Highlights of Matchday 5
Clear favorite against unstable guests: Bayern remain untouchable after their 4:1 away win in Hoffenheim, preserving a perfect record and the best start in Bundesliga history. Kane’s hat-trick sealed the deal, while Kompany’s rotation strategy continues to work. Even with a “B-team,” Bayern looked dominant.
Bremen, meanwhile, regressed after their 4:0 win at Gladbach. Without injured Mbangula, creativity was lacking, Njinmah was ineffective, and Schmid missed a penalty. The 0:3 loss to Freiburg exposed ideas and defensive gaps.
In Munich, everything depends on whether Mbangula returns. Without him, Werder are a class below. Against a physically strong Bayern side, a step-up across the pitch is required.
Forecast: Bayern in top form, Bremen unlikely to keep pace.
Mainz enter with their first win of the season – a 4:1 over Augsburg, even scoring twice while down to 10 men. Sano starred, while Nebel and Sieb added creativity. Still, weaknesses remain: comebacks are rare, defense is slow against transitions, and quality is lacking in tight matches.
Dortmund travel with confidence. Their 1:0 over Wolfsburg marked a third straight win and showed maturity. Adeyemi was clinical, Schlotterbeck solid at the back, and even without flair, the BVB got the job done. After a draining 4:4 Champions League draw at Juventus, they still managed to grind out a result. Dortmund now look like Bayern’s only real challenger.
Union returned in style with a 4:3 win in Frankfurt. Burke was man of the match with a hat-trick, while Baumgart’s side rediscovered their gritty, effective identity. Yet defensive issues and inconsistency remain.
HSV finally celebrated a Bundesliga win again – 2:1 against Heidenheim, their first in over seven years. Vuskovic broke the curse, Vieira provided the assist. Still, defensively they looked fragile. Against counter-pressing Union, that could be fatal.
Forecast: A high-energy battle with pressure on both sides. Union punish HSV’s weak defense and win 2:1.
